Category Archives: Blog

Bear Markets vs Bull Markets

When it comes to investing in the markets, the terms bull and bear market are used to describe how stock markets are doing in general.

Simply put, are they going up or are they going down?

At the same time, because the market is determined by investors’ attitudes, these terms also denote how investors feel about the market and the ensuing trends.

Driving up
A bull market refers to a market that is on the rise. It is typified by a sustained increase in price, for example in equity markets in the prices of companies’ shares. In such times, investors often have faith that the uptrend will continue over the long term.

Typically, in this scenario, the country’s economy is strong and employment levels are high.

Dipping down
By contrast, a bear market is one that is in decline, typically having fallen 20% or more from recent highs. Share prices are continuously dropping, resulting in a downward trend that investors believe will continue, which, in turn, perpetuates the downward spiral.

During a bear market, the economy will typically slow down and unemployment will rise as companies begin laying off workers.

How does this affect investor behaviour?
Because the market performance is impacted and determined by how individuals perceive that performance, investor psychology and sentiment affect whether the market will rise or fall. Stock market performance and investor psychology are mutually dependent. In a bull market, investors willingly participate in the hope of obtaining a profit.

During a bear market, market sentiment is negative as investors are beginning to move their money out of equities and into fixed-income securities, as they wait for a positive move in the stock market. This is not always the best move – following the crowd is not always in our best interest.

For those who are able to ride the market out, in theory, will benefit in the long run. The graph above shows us that in the last 90 years, the markets have grown more than they have fallen.

How does this affect the economy?
Because the businesses whose stocks are trading on the exchanges are participants in the greater economy, the stock market and the economy are strongly linked.

A bear market is associated with a weak economy as most businesses are unable to record huge profits because consumers are not spending nearly enough. This decline in profits, of course, directly affects the way the market values stocks.

In a bull market, the reverse occurs, as people have more money to spend and are willing to spend it, which, in turn, drives and strengthens the economy.

The Bottom Line
Both bear and bull markets will have a large influence on your investments, so it’s a good idea to take some time to determine what the market is doing when making an investment decision. Having the input from your financial adviser is crucial at this point – but neither market situation is better or worse than the other as both have opportunities and threats to your investment potential.

Remember that over the long term, the stock market has always posted a positive return.

Click here for the article on Investopedia

Why have the markets taken a knock?

In a nutshell, the markets are driven by business activity which is supported by investor confidence. When businesses have investors, they can grow and create more value, which in turn encourages more investors. When businesses can’t run normally (like in the case of a global pandemic), investors fear they will lose money and pull out their investments or stop supplying more cash – which hits the businesses even harder.

The interconnected world we live in means we are all affected by movements in other countries. Trade shutdowns and lockdowns on the other side of the world will affect everyone here too.

Whether it’s directly linked to investments, supply of goods to trade, or indirectly through the price of petrol for our cars or the supply and cost of goods in the grocery stores. Some of us will be fortunate not to lose our jobs, but our economy will shoulder the burden of those who do.

Events that knock global markets are often referred to as Black Swan events.

The Black Swan theory describes an event that is unpredictable and which has a significant impact. For example, if we take the effects of COVID-19 (Coronavirus) and add it to an oil war, spice it up with local business confidence being low we have a significant knock to our economy.

The good news is that we’re all in this together. We’re not isolated, which means that we can work together with greater strength and resolve to solve the problems that will stem from a global Black Swan event. We see this in how banks and other large companies step in to assist consumers.

“Recently, the coronavirus pandemic has added uncertainty to global markets. No one can confidently state its impact or for how long it will last. It has already impacted our tourism sector, slowed down economic activity and caused growth forecasts to be slashed. This has led to a large sell-off of riskier emerging market assets reflected in the over 25% drop in the JSE Top 40 index within the last month. The latest global travel bans and the drop in the S&P 500 by over 20% are indicators of the virus’s effect on first-world countries.” 22Seven

When we see words like “economic crash” filling up our Twitter feed, we may rightly begin to worry about our investments.

We have two options: sell now and time our re-entry or wait it out.

The market does recover – this has been proven time and time again over the last 90 years. As it stands, recovery times are, on average, just under two years when in a bear market (watch out for a blog coming soon on bull vs bear markets!).

However, it’s difficult to predict share price movements. This is another reason to not sell investments, as it’s difficult to predict when to buy them back. A good strategy for most would be to continue with monthly capital injections.

(Ideas for this blog come from 22seven)

Don’t sabotage your future self

Bad market performance, government lockdowns, global epidemics and loadshedding aren’t what threaten our investing and financial behaviour.

Our biggest threat is ourselves.

Studies have shown that people improve substantially in financial and investment decisions as they get older. When we are young — and perhaps less secure in our financial situation — we have a tendency to be controlled by emotional biases; strong impulses that can be detrimental to our investment habits.

Behavioural economists refer to some typical flaws that are commonly seen in investment decisions as failures of rationality. In order to achieve long-term financial goals, it is, therefore, important to identify and wrestle with some of our personality-driven investing mistakes.

Even more so when we’re going through a crisis and it’s confrontational!

It’s hard, but it’s not impossible.

The first step is to accept that a problem exists in the way that we approach our decision making – before we sabotage ourselves. It is then a question of devising a set of strategies to control, or at least mitigate, harmful decisions.

It’s important to be kind to yourself at this point – sabotaging your future self DOES NOT mean overextending yourself now to keep up with premiums, but it also means not selling off investments out of fear if it’s not in your best interest. The goal is to slow your decision process down so you avoid making errors you will regret.

According to a survey conducted by Barclays Wealth, many wealthy investors realise their tendency to make emotional decisions, and would be happy to have some help dealing with certain issues.

The ability to exercise control plays a vital part in financial decision-making, especially when investment climates can be volatile, confusing, and nerve-wracking. It is important to feel confident in your financial plan, so that you can resolutely commit to whatever investment strategy you decide will benefit your future self best.

For example, research suggests that there is a psychological phenomenon referred to as the trading paradox. A high percentage of investors feel they need to trade frequently in order to maximise their investment gains but, at the same time, many of the same investors feel that their overall returns suffer because they trade too much. Even though certain investors have this realisation and see the downfalls of their actions, they still give in to emotionally-triggered temptations and often miss out on optimal returns as a result.

Behavioural coaching, in this instance, could help someone to focus on methods of changing this behaviour for good.

Behavioural Coaching

Behavioural coaching employs a range of professional techniques to help you to make changes to certain patterns of behaviour. Behaviour comprises actions and reactions, and behavioural coaching has been defined by the Behavioural Coaching Institute as “the art of facilitating the learning and development of an individual, so as to increase their effectiveness and happiness”.

It emphasises that much of human behaviour is, in fact, learned, and that all behaviours result in positive or negative consequences for the individual and those around them.

This model of coaching, therefore, involves identifying and measuring certain learned behaviours and their impacts. To do this requires an exploration of core values and motivations, as well as assessing covert behaviours (such as anxiety or self-defeating beliefs) in relation to overt actions (such as public speaking).

Once you have identified an issue and sought professional guidance in establishing a personal set of effective coping mechanisms, it is important to consistently exercise your newfound good habits. These need to be practiced on an ongoing basis, and regular monitoring and evaluation will help you to achieve long-term success.

Fight the fear

When life doesn’t go according to plan, our first response will often be one of fear. Unfortunately, life generally never goes according to plan – so we encounter fear a lot!

Since fear cannot be avoided, we need to develop tools to cope with it so that we can allow it a constructive space in our lives, and not let it be a destructive force if left unchecked.

Hopefully, this brief article can spark conversations that will help us all learn to fight the fear in our daily lives and begin to explore our own unique reactions a little closer.

This blog is how we recognise our stress responses to fear, accept them and move past them.

If you ask most people what the typical responses to fear are, they may reply with ‘Fight or Flight’. But what many of us don’t know is that there are two more responses, these are Freeze and Fawn. None of these are good or bad, they’re just typical responses that we lean towards to cope with our fear.

With the help of trauma-informed treatment specialist, Patrick Walden, (LICSW), here are some brief overviews that he shared in an interview with The Mighty.

Fight (anger)
Those of us who tend toward the fight response innately believe power will guarantee the security and control that we may have lacked in childhood.

“Fight looks like self-preservation at all costs,” Walden told The Mighty, adding that this trauma response can manifest in explosive outbursts of temper, aggressive behavior, demanding perfection from others or being “unfair” in interpersonal confrontations.

He also noted that while we typically associate the fight response with men, women can also struggle with anger, though in many cases they direct their anger inward at themselves instead of toward others.

Recognising our default response to be angry will help us temper this response and create space to calm down before making any decisions or hurting people around us unnecessarily.

Flight (anxiety)
This fear response usually shows up in people who are chronically busy and perfectionistic. They may believe “being perfect” is a surefire way to receive love and prevent abandonment by important people in their lives.

“Flight can look like obsessive thinking or compulsive behavior, feelings of panic or anxiety, rushing around, being a workaholic or over-worrying, [and being] unable to sit still or feel relaxed,” Walden said.

Taking time to meditate and reduce anxiety is helpful for those of us who tend towards this type of response.

Freeze (avoidance)
Some of us who experience the freeze response are often mistrustful of others and generally find comfort in solitude. The freeze response may also refer to feeling physically or mentally “frozen” as a result of trauma, which people may experience as dissociation.

“Freeze looks like spacing out or feeling unreal, isolating [yourself] from the outside world, being a couch potato … [and having] difficulty making and acting on decisions,” Walden said.

If you feel like this when fear hits, having a few people you trust and can encourage you to take action would be helpful to overcoming your fears.

Fawn (accommodating)
Fawning is perhaps best understood as “people-pleasing.” According to Walker, who coined the term “fawn” as it relates to trauma, people with the fawn response are so accommodating of others’ needs that they often find themselves in codependent relationships.

“Fawn types seek safety by merging with the wishes, needs and demands of others. They act as if they unconsciously believe that the price of admission to any relationship is the forfeiture of all their needs, rights, preferences and boundaries.”

If you’re a ‘YES’ person and struggle to enforce boundaries, remind yourself that it’s okay to say ‘NO’ and put yourself first. If you don’t work on yourself you will have nothing to give others in times of crisis.

Remember, we will all experience fear – every day in fact. Most of the time the fear that we experience is easy to cope with, but when fear becomes debilitating we need to bring it in check so that we can move forward and not find ourselves stuck in our fear or reacting in fear.

For the full article on The Mighty – click here.

Understand what you need in your adviser

Here’s the thing about a 20-minute DIY job: it never takes 20 minutes.

Either you don’t have the right tools, or the right skills… or the materials turn out to be too hard, too soft, too big, too small etc.

On the rare occasion, it might take you 20 minutes or less. You might be perfectly suited to it, and have all you need on hand. For most of us – it doesn’t turn out that way.

The same is true for our financial planning. It’s not about relinquishing control, it’s about maintaining a fresh perspective on how you manage your money and making sure it’s being done in the best possible way.

A mentor once said that it’s easy to build a bridge – just pour an excessive amount of cement into the valley where you want to cross. When we think about this ridiculous idea, we realize how important engineers are.

Again – the same applies to accepting the need for a financial adviser, planner or coach. You can spend your money on whatever you want, but is that going to work out well for you? You can choose any risk or investment products you want online, but will those work out well for you?

If your money was cement, and you had to build a bridge to your future self, wouldn’t you want to have plenty of cement to make it across safely without running out of supplies in the first four meters?

A financial adviser will help, but you need to know what kind of adviser will suit you best.

Independent vs tied financial advisors
An independent financial advisor is someone who offers advice on products from multiple service providers. They usually work for themselves or are part of a group of independent financial advisors.

On the other hand, tied financial advisors will only provide advice on products their company offers. They typically have a deeper knowledge of a narrower set of products. There may be convenience or rewards related benefits when dealing with a single provider.

It’s important to identify which type of financial advisor you’re dealing with before signing any contracts with them.

Commission-based vs fee-based rates
Commission-based advisors are paid a commission on the products they sell. They are paid when the investment is made or the insurance policy is taken out and their advice is tightly coupled to the products they sell. However, they don’t charge a fee for meeting you.

Fee-based advisors charge a fee for advising you regardless of whether you purchase a product. There are advisors who operate a hybrid of these two structures and will benefit from both giving advice and selling products.

Fees will have an impact on the value of the investments you make and the insurance premiums you pay. Although they may sound burdensome, they are usually negotiable, so it’s worthwhile having a conversation about.

Don’t wait until you have lots of cement… uh, money.
You don’t need to be wealthy to have a financial advisor – this is a common misconception. You do however need a solid stream of income and a positive commitment towards making your money grow over time.

(Definitions from 22seven)

Financial wellness mindsets for life’s autumn

Autumn is a precious time of year and is perhaps an altogether more positive metaphor for another special time: the tail end of middle age when we are far from elderly, but far from young.

You look up one day and realise that while you were busy building a life with your family, or perhaps pursuing a fulfilling career, the years rolled by more quickly than you thought. There’s still time on the proverbial clock, but you’ve now reached the autumn of life. What can you do to ensure financial stability?

Just like autumn, this age is a time of rich maturity and transformation, pausing to enjoy the comforts of life you’ve stacked up for yourself and settling in for the winter.

The ‘autumn of life’ also, however, requires a completely different financial strategy and mindset. Here, some top tips for navigating your own ‘autumn’:

Hold to a relatively firm budget

By the time you’re in your mid to late fifties, the kids have most likely flown the nest to build futures of their own and if you’re fortunate, you may have already paid off your bond. This newfound financial freedom might tempt you to spend more extravagantly but now more than ever, a level head will be your best asset.

When you’re out with friends, entertain modestly and resist the urge to pick up everyone’s tab for the sake of appearances. At this point, you shouldn’t feel the need to impress those in your social circle.

Another important thing to bear in mind is that while you’re still an active member of the workforce, you should increase contributions to your retirement fund as much as possible.

Be an adviser to your children, but not an endless safety net

If you have kids, your natural inclination will always be to help them in troubled times, no matter how old they get. While admirable, your parental instincts must be balanced with a pragmatic approach to the shifting realities of your own life.

The fact is that very few older parents are in a position to act as an eternal wellspring of material resources and even if you are, the better course of action is to raise children with the strength and independence to stand on their own feet.

Never be afraid to learn something new

If there’s one tip that older professionals should consider taking from their 20-something counterparts, it’s the value of being willing to adapt to change and acquire new knowledge. With the plethora of reliable educational resources available online (often at low or zero cost), self-driven learning has never been easier.

Retirement expectations are changing fast too. With a combination of well-earned experience and some freshly developed skills, you might even be able to bolster that retirement fund with an entrepreneurial endeavour that only begins in your sixties.

Make your life easier – Part 3

Don’t avoid digital help. Whilst there are many dystopian stories about how robots will take over the world, those projected realities are highly unlikely to ever manifest.

AI, big data and cloud storage can be our friend in making our life easier – which is what technology was always intended for!

Granted, we can easily become disconnected from the material and relational world around us if we immerse ourselves too completely in the digital world, so balance is always crucial – but still, we can be astute in how we use it.

These tips are all about how digital space can create more space in your life

USE CLOUD STORAGE

Everyone seems to talk about ‘the cloud’ as if we all actually understand what that means. If you’re feeling left out, here’s a quick explanation. Storing information in the cloud means that you’re using someone else’s computer (called a hosting or cloud server, like Google Drive) to store your information, and that computer is always online. This means that you can access your information through the internet, from any device, in any location at any time – provided you have internet access.

Google, Microsoft, Dropbox – these are all good examples of cloud servers but there are literally hundreds of options.

The ultimate advantage to you is that your information is kept off-site. So… when you spill coffee on your laptop, a power-surge blows your desktop or you drop your phone in the loo, you don’t lose your data. You can store photos and family videos in the cloud. You might want to scan and save important documents – the options are limitless.

It also helps if you run a business. Instead of having an expensive local server, you can share all information in the cloud so that your team can access what they need. And again – should anything happen to a device (or everything in your office), you can keep valuable business information safe and accessible.

USE A VIRTUAL DIGITAL ASSISTANT (VDA, VA or DA)

Most smartphones come with a built-in DA (Siri and Alexa are great examples), but we use them to do fun things like finding out the time in a different country and playing a specific song.

But, you can use your DA to set up tasks and reminders. This can range from phone calls that you need to make, emails you might need to follow up on in two to three months or everyday tasks like managing your shopping list.

If you couple this tip with cloud storage, you can create shared lists that anyone in your family or team can update. From shopping lists, monthly budgets and wish lists for holidays, birthdays and home improvements, integrating your use of Siri in your daily life will make your life WAY easier.

If there is something in your life that is causing stress because it’s clumsy or cumbersome, see how you can change it to make your life easier!

Make your life easier – Part 2

Every time we say ‘YES’ to something new, it seems to just make our life more complicated down the line; more events to attend, increased responsibilities and less time to relax and do what we really want to do.

Finding just the right amount of order in your life is one of the secrets to making your life easier (learning to say ‘No.’ is another secret…)

Whilst we can’t just stop growing and adding more to our lives, we can look at ways to make other things in our life easier. From planning our budget to organizing our laundry, no task is too mundane to refine and review!

There are so many great ideas on the web – but here are some of them from www.harvardhomemaker.com.

THE THREE BAG LAUNDRY SORTER

Whether you run a household of seven or live the single life, laundry has to be sorted. It seems completely pedestrian to ‘plan’ your laundry sorting – but it will save you time and frustration which ultimately opens up space in your life.

Set up three baskets or bags – one for whites, one for darks and one for colours. Label it and make sure everyone in the house knows what’s potting. This way – when one bag or basket is full – that’s the load you do. You’ll save loads of time on every load of washing!

THE DOUBLE-COOKING PLAN

When you’re cooking a pasta, rice or curry dish – prepare double the amount that you need and freeze the leftovers. This requires two levels of discipline – the first is in the planning and the second is in the eating!

Cooking double what you need DOESN’T cost you double. In fact, it costs you less: buying ingredients in bulk, using electricity once, and cleaning up pots and pans once. It does require some forethought, it’s not something you can easily do at the last minute on a Tuesday night. Many people who employ this trick will plan and cook meals on a Sunday for the week ahead.

When it comes to dishing up, only put out half of the food to avoid the temptation of having seconds simply because the food is there. Once in the freezer, you can easily enjoy that savvy meal up to a week later.

THE FILING CABINET

These are not just for work! When you receive statements in the mail, have important documents (IDs, passports and certified copies) or information packs that come with your digital devices (these also often have important codes that you may need later), have a filing cabinet or draw where you can store them vertically (like a concertina file).

When you have easy access to this information and the space to store it you will be more likely to file it away safely instead of piling it on the nearest counter to fall over and cause frustration in your life.

Making your life easier is not about changing one thing, it’s about learning how to adjust to the constant change in your life.

Offshore investing and the new expat tax

As of 1 March 2020, an amendment to the South African Income Tax Act will have definite ramifications on the lives of South Africans living and working abroad.

Now that this infamous ‘expat tax’ is in effect, SA expats are now obligated to pay up to 45% of their foreign income to the taxman when it exceeds R1 million per annum, which includes any fringe benefits provided as part of the job.

But what about investors? How does ‘expat tax’ change your investment strategy and how should you approach offshore earnings being taxed from an investment perspective?

Please remember that the following does not constitute financial advice.

Offshore investments and the expat tax

First, the somewhat good news: investment income is still considered passive income and, if you are residing in South Africa and a citizen but have offshore investments, dividends and the like will be taxed just as they always have been and not under the new ‘expat tax’. Same goes for rental property owned overseas, shareholder earnings and so on. As long as it’s passive, you should be fine.

Active income and expat tax

But what if you do work overseas, at least some of the time? Even for those with stable and reliable employment, maintaining one’s life in a second city can be costly.

In this situation, your choices are frustratingly few. You can either return to SA, find an offshore structure in which to invest those earnings, or formalise the process of financial emigration. Each of these options comes with significant consequences.

For many expats, particularly those who have lived elsewhere for an extended period and thereby assimilated into the culture of their host nation, the idea of returning to South Africa and all its social and political instability is not a welcome one.

If you are a skilled professional with good standing in the other country, the concept of financial emigration may best suit your needs. At a very basic level, this is making the official decision to sever your connection with South Africa and surrender your status as an ordinary resident. Beware though, because doing so will impose strict limitations on what you can do with locally remaining assets, impede your ability to acquire more in the future, as well as having serious implications on capital gains tax. Furthermore, depending on how and when you choose to relinquish citizenship, your actions may be assessed with a distrustful attitude. Especially now, after 1 March.

Two of the main reasons for choosing this route are if you are certain you have no intention of returning to South Africa, or if you stand to receive a substantial inheritance in the years ahead – R10 million or more. Once you’re no longer an ordinary resident, any inheritance should potentially be paid to you directly in the foreign jurisdiction, without the need for approval from the South African Reserve Bank or clearance from the South African Revenue Service, both of which apply to South African citizens.

Investment solutions

Other ways to protect your foreign earnings would be to establish a formally recognised company in a tax-friendly location, through which to invoice your employer, though taking such a path would mean you’ll need to pay very close attention to the specific conditions and requirements, in order to comply with international law.

Finally, it could be an option to put those earnings into an offshore investment platform somewhere the tax codes aren’t so harsh, thereby limiting your exposure to penalties and estate duty. Whichever option you pick, none will be particularly easy or stress-free, but decisions must be made to ensure you have legally compliant structures in place to protect your current lifestyle and future prospects.

Ultimately, the laws surrounding taxation are a quagmire at the best of times, and become infinitely more complex when different countries’ laws are at play simultaneously.

The ‘expat tax’ situation highlights the need for sound professional financial advice within a good understanding of South African offshore investment vehicles, fiduciary laws of the countries in which you earn and what your particular financial goals and needs are.

Make your life easier – Part 1

Every day our lives get a little more complicated. That’s the reality of the world that we’re currently living in. It’s not easy to keep order in your life – even if you’re one of the few who excel in keeping things in line!

Finding just the right amount of order in your life is one of the secrets to making your life easier (learning to say ‘No.’ is another secret…)

When you can find what you’re looking for, quickly and easily, you will have more time to be creative and work on projects that will help you grow, but you also won’t need to go out and ‘buy another one’…

There are so many great ideas on the web – but here are some of them from www.harvardhomemaker.com.

USE ONLINE GROCERY SHOPPING

Think about it: do some clicking in the comfort of your own home at night; select your delivery option – and it’s done. The groceries magically appear – you (and your family) don’t even have to get into your car.

Most of the local online grocery options also enable you to order previously purchased products, keeping a list of your popular items – making it quicker and easier to top up your fridge and pantry each time you log on to your account.

Both Pick ‘n Pay and Woolworths offer great options.

USE HANGING SHOE HOLDERS – NOT FOR SHOES THOUGH…

Whether it’s behind the bathroom door for extra toiletries and medicines, hanging inside the broom closet with your detergents or in the garage with tools, paints, chemicals and odds and ends – these simple, ridiculously-cheap, organizers can be hidden away and hung almost anywhere discreet and give you considerably more shelf space – and allow you to see the full scope of what you have.

You’ll never buy too much jik, or lose your spare razor blades again!

USE A TASK SCHEDULER THAT IS DIFFERENT TO YOUR EMAILS

This is great for your work ethic!

When you’re trying to be super productive at work, nothing is more disruptive than an email coming through that is asking you to ‘quickly’ do something. It breaks your creative work flow, slows you down and increases your stress levels.

Many of us allow our emails, texts or phones to govern our task scheduling. We start off the day with one project in mind – and then if a message comes through, instead of prioritising and scheduling it for later, we deal with it now because we know that if we close that message… we might forget.

Asana and Monday.com are great tools to use – the former has a free version whilst the latter is a paid-for solution.

Having a task programme that is separate to your emails, allows you to transfer requests, schedule them and stick to the job at hand. And you won’t miss a beat.

Hopefully these ideas help to make your life a little easier and less complicated!